• Shivkumar

16th March - Forex Overview & Market Update

(By Shivkumar)


Oil Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

  • Crude oil gained at the expense of USD, bolstered by weekly EIA inventory drawdown

  • Fundamental picture remains clouded with concerns about weakness in global demand

  • Fed may sink oil, but will declines surpass potential gains on Sunday OPEC+ meeting?

The US Dollar succumbed to selling pressure thanks to gains in the British Pound as Sterling rejoiced the UK Parliament ruling out a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. Thus a cheaper dollar makes oil comparatively more expensive.

US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly inventory data reveled that there was an unexpectedly sharper drawdown in stockpiles, lifting crude oil as supply was constrained.

EUR/USD :- TECHNICAL STRATEGY: BEARISH

  • EUR/USD aiming for 1.3339 resistance

  • How long can it last above key barrier?

  • A failure to breach could be bearish

Following the drop caused by the ECB rate decision and outlook, EUR/USD turned around at 1.119.

Immediate fundamental risk by way of the US’ University of Michigan sentiment survey which may give a boost to EUR/USD, should the data fall short of expectations.


GBP/USD : ASIAN MARKET OPEN TALKING POINTS

  • GBP/USD wobbled as Brexit saga lingered, US Dollar appreciated

  • Trade war fears may have hurt sentiment, resistance tamed S&P 500

  • BoJ may downgrade economic forecasts, Asia stocks may trade mixed

The British Pound wobbled, underperforming against its major counterparts after upside support from a ‘no-deal’ Brexit being rejected faded.

US Dollar appreciated at the expense of Sterling weakness, weighing down on anti-fiat gold prices which may now find confirming a technical bullish break more difficult.

S&P 500 lacked the momentum to find follow-through after gains in European benchmark stock indexes. It ended the day about 0.1% lower as resistance at 2824 held.


GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices sharply fell following bearish technical cues, strong USD

Gold prices had their worst day since the beginning of this month. The anti-fiat commodity lost ground as the US Dollar appreciated.



1) EUR/USD


The greenback eased with Wall Street’s opening, now easing further on mixed US figures, with disappointing NY Empire Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production. Preliminary Match Michigan Consumer Sentiment upbeat with 97.8.

R3 1.1393

R2 1.1369

R1 1.1348

PP 1.1324

S1 1.1302

S2 1.1278

S3 1.1256


2) GBP/USD

The Pound pressures the upper end of its daily range against the greenback amid lack of interest on this last. Brexit chaos in pause until new definitions about the extension of Art. 50

R3 1.3428

R2 1.3365

R1 1.333

PP 1.3266

S1 1.3231

S2 1.3168

S3 1.3133


3) Gold

After posting heavy losses and closing the day below $1300 on Thursday, the XAU/USD pair gained traction and recovered a large part of yesterday’s fall. At the moment, the pair is trading at $1303, adding $7, or 0.55%, on a daily basis.

R3 1320.05

R2 1313.25

R1 1307.7

PP 1300.9

S1 1295.35

S2 1288.55

S3 1283

Disclosure :- The author does not hold any forex trading account while writing.

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