23rd March - Crypto Technical & Market Watch
Bitcoin Futures Volume Is More Significant Than You Think, Bitwise Says
CoinMarketCap, one of the most prominent sources of crypto trading information, says the bitcoin market’s average daily volume is roughly $6 billion, but Bitwise argues that, going by its own methodology (which it outlines in some detail in the 227-page presentation to the SEC), the actual average daily bitcoin trading volume is only $273 million.
This discrepancy means that the futures trading volume reported by the major Chicago exchanges, CME Group and Cboe, has a far greater impact on the market than previously thought, according to Bitwise. (Although the Bitwise report doesn’t mention it, Cboe will be suspending its product in the coming weeks)
The average daily futures volume on CME and Cboe combined totals near $85 million, which is not too far off from the average daily spot volume of $110 million on Binance, the exchange which performs the largest number of legitimate trades, according to Bitwise.
As the market matures, fake reporting is likely to be severely dealt with, as seen in the case of South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Komid, where two of its leaders were handed a jail sentence.
If the BTC/USD pair does not scale $4,255 within the next few days, traders are likely to book profits that will drag prices lower. Critical levels to watch on the downside are $3,355 and below it $3,236.09. If the bears sink the digital currency below $3,236.09, it will hurt sentiment and result in panic selling, dragging prices lower.Traders can trail the stops on the long positions higher to $3,550, in order to reduce the risk.
A breakout and close above $144.78,the pattern target of this breakout is $163.68, but we anticipate the price to move up to $167.32. On a close above $167.32, the larger ascending triangle will complete that has a pattern target of $251.64.On a break below this, the bullish pattern will be negated and the ETH/USD pair can fall to $102.49.Traders can keep a stop loss of $125 on the remaining long positions.
If the support breaks, the XRP/USD pair can dip to $0.27795. We expect a strong support at this level, but if this also breaks, the next support to watch out on the downside is $0.24508. If the pair bounces off the current levels, it can move up to $0.33108, and can carry the price to $0.40. Traders can keep the stops on the long positions below $0.27795.
If the pair rebounds sharply from the current levels breaks out of $163.89, it can rally to $175 and above it to $220.Traders can trail the stop loss on the long positions at $140.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency at the time of writing.
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