Search
  • Shivkumar

30 March - Forex Weekly Outlook

(By Shivkumar)

Weekly GBP Fundamental Forecast.

  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long GBP/USD - the ratio stands at +1.92 (65.8% of traders are long) – bearish reading

  • The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since March 10th

  • Long positions are26.5% higher than yesterday and 17.1% higher from last week

  • Short positions are 28.0% lower than yesterday and 20.9% lower from last week

  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

FUNDAMENTAL CRUDE OIL FORECAST: NEUTRAL

  • Crude oil’s uptrend looks solid enough

  • However, it also looks overbought at a time of deep fundamental uncertainty

  • A consolidation could be coming, assuming no left-field trade news

Gold Price Weekly Outlook

  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short Gold - the ratio stands at +3.32 (76.9% of traders are long) – bearish reading

  • Long positions are 2.6% higher than yesterday and 7.5% higher from last week

  • Short positions are 15.7% lower than yesterday and 17.9% lower from last week

  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.



1) EUR/USD


The shared currency continued giving up ground on the back of slowing economic growth. Monday Markit PMI to make it or break it.

R31.1279

R21.1263

R11.1241

PP1.1225

S11.1203

S21.1187

S31.1165


2) GBP/USD


PM May's Brexit deal failed once again in the Parliament. It's not about if there is going to be a hard Brexit, but when. May's political career ended this Friday.

R31.328

R21.3208

R11.3121

PP1.3049

S11.2963

S21.2891

S31.2804


3) XAU/USD


Gold recovers from drop that took price out of the rising channel and below 1300 the prior session where the 38.2% and the 23.6% Fibos of the late Feb highs and early March swing lows were broken, testing the bottom of the cloud where it stablised and bounced back from.

R31311.7

R21305.72

R11298.92

PP1292.94

S11286.14

S21280.16

S31273.36


4) Crude Oil

Bulls are looking for a break beyond $60.80 a barrel.

  • Bulls are looking for a break beyond $60.80 a barrel. The next resistances are seen at 61.20 and 61.60 level. 

  • Support is at 60.20 and 59.60 level.

Disclosure :- The author does not hold any forex trading account while writing.

Register for technical, and market updates at contact@shivfxcrypto.com

3 views
  • Instagram Social Icon
  • Twitter Social Icon
  • s-facebook